[qrp-canada] FW: ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Jan 4 12:52:32 EST 2008

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From: W1AW Mailing List [mailto:w1aw-list-request at listserv.arrl.org] 
Sent: Friday, January 04, 2008 10:59 AM
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Subject: ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP01
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 4, 2008
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

It's a new year, and now time to review 2007 sunspot cycle progression.  In
2006 there was a consensus that solar minimum would occur in early 2007, but
we actually may not be there still.  The latest projection in the Weekly
Preliminary Report and forecast (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/ and
page 8 in the January 2 issue) shows the bottom of the cycle between
December 2007 and April 2008. Note the two predictions for the next cycle, a
high estimate and a low estimate, reflecting the split consensus for the
Cycle 24 prediction.

Also note the monthly (even though the URL says weekly) forecast issued on
January 2 at, http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt shows a cycle
minimum for February 2008.

Exactly one year ago in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 we wrote that
2007 would be "the year we'll likely see the end of sunspot Cycle 23, the
beginning of Cycle 24, and the minima between cycles."  Now a year later we
might say the same about 2008.

The yearly average of the daily sunspot numbers for 1999-2007 were 136.3,
173, 170.3, 176.6, 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1 and 12.8. Average daily solar
flux for the same years was 153.7, 179.6, 181.6, 179.5, 129.2, 106.6, 91.9,
79.9 and 73.1.

Compare 2006-2007 above with the last solar minimum, when in 1995-1997 the
yearly averages of sunspot numbers were 28.7, 13.2 and 30.7.

In February 2007 we began calculating and tracking a 3-month moving average
of daily sunspot numbers.  This was done to try to spot trends.  A three
month period seemed like it might give us some smoothing of the often
volatile daily numbers, but much shorter than the 12-month smoothed values.

Apr 06 38.5
May 06 39.7
Jun 06 28.9
Jul 06 23.3
Aug 06 23.5
Sep 06 21.2
Oct 06 24.1
Nov 06 23.1
Dec 06 27.3
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07  5.4
Oct 07  3
Nov 07  6.9

Why is November the last month on our list?  Because it is the center month
for the latest 3-month average, which is for October through December.  If
we were instead calculating a 12-month moving average, at the end of
December the latest number would center on June 2007.

Last week's bulletin reported 10-meter openings, and said that E-skip was
unexpected at this time of year.  Actually there is a small peak in
sporadic-E propagation centered around Winter Solstice, about 1/5 to 1/8 the
intensity of the Summer sporadic-E season.  The propagation reported by K7HP
occurred just hours from the precise time of solstice.

One of several who spoke up concerning Winter E season in response to last
week's bulletin was Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico.  Bill
said that Winter E-skip is, "more likely to happen during the evening hours
than during the morning, while Summer Es occurs during morning and evening
about equally -- though that's just percentages and probability. We just had
a nice morning Es opening a couple days ago on 6 meters."

Another Winter solstice 10-meter report came from Joaquin Montoya, EA2CCG,
who reported working a number of Italian and French stations with his
"fishing rod antenna."  If you can read Spanish, or even want to try out one
of those online language translators, check out his blog at,
http://ea2ccg.blogspot.com/.

A December 30 10-meter E-skip report came from Oleh Kernytskyy, KD7WPJ of
Saint George, Utah.  In the morning he heard a strong beacon signal from
K5AB, then he called CQ on CW with no response. He moved to phone and had
many contacts, including the states of UT, NM, TX, OK, AR and FL.

See http://www.amfmdx.net/propagation/Es.html for an interesting treatment
of E-layer propagation.

So what's up for the next week?  Sunspot 978 reappeared, and the daily
sunspot numbers for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday were 11, 13 and 13,
while solar flux was 79.4, 79.6 and 79.3.  The US Air Force and NOAA Space
Weather Prediction Center forecast rising solar flux values of 80 for
January 4-5, 85 for January 6-8, and 90 for January 9-11.  This is a slight
move downward and outward.  As recently as two days ago, they were
predicting flux of 95 for January 7-9.

They also forecast a planetary A index for January 4-10 of 10, 10, 5, 8, 8,
5 and 5. The next unsettled to active period is predicted for January 13-14
with a planetary A index of 15. After 2100z today look for an updated
forecast of solar flux and A index at,
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/010145DF.txt.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions January
4-5, unsettled January 6-7, quiet to unsettled again on January 8, and quiet
conditions January 9-10.

The last few days have had very quiet with stable geomagnetic conditions.
This should correlate with lower absorption of HF signals.  You can see
interesting very quiet numbers at,
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt.  Note the planetary A index
for January 2-3 was 1 for both days, but all of the K index readings for
those days were 0.  Contrast that with the high latitude college (Fairbanks,
Alaska) readings for January 2.  There is just one K index reading of 1, but
the A index reading for that day is 0.

KN4LF writes that he has decided to make his daily propagation forecasts
free again, and you can see them at, http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6h.htm.  He
also has a sign-up option there for email bulletins.

Last, today I am buying a used car from a private party found via an online
ad.  The seller turned out to be the grand-daughter of the original holder
of VE7BR, A.J. Spilsbury, a remarkable Canadian radio pioneer who
manufactured HF gear for marine and wilderness communications in British
Columbia.  Spilsbury was also an accomplished painter, photographer, author
of several books, and he founded a regional airline.  He became a Silent Key
in 2003 at age 97.  I found information on him by googling his last name
alone, or combined with other search terms such as "radio."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at, k7ra at arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  For a detailed explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html.  An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at,
http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for December 27 through January 2 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11 and
13 with a mean of 3.4.  10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.8, 72.7, 75, 76.7, 79.4,
and 79.6 with a mean of 75.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 2,
2, 2, 3 and 1 with a mean of 2.3.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4,
2, 2, 3, 2, 2 and 1, with a mean of 2.3. NNNN /EX

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